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15 Factors That (Allegedly) Gauge Whether You’ll Get Divorced


A writer for The Daily Beast compiled a whole bunch of stats that you can use to predict whether you’re really in it for the long haul. Curious?

1. If you’re a married American, your marriage is between 40 and 50 percent likely to end in divorce. The good news is, the divorce rate is going down after peaking at 50 percent in the ’80s.2. If you live in a red state, you’re 27 percent more likely to get divorced than if you live in a blue state. The rationale? Couples tend to marry younger in red states, and the younger you marry, the more likely it is you’ll wind up divorced. (Rory and I have both always lived in blue states. Do we get bonus points?)

3. If you argue with your spouse about finances once a week, your marriage is 30 percent more likely to end in divorce than if you argue with your spouse about finances less frequently. As the story says, “Money woes kill marriages.”

4. If your parents were divorced, you’re at least 40 percent more likely to get divorced than if they weren’t. If your parents married others after divorcing, you’re 91 percent more likely to get divorced. Huh? Both of my parents are remarried. So seeing them in happy marriages makes me more likely to end mine? That doesn’t make sense. Plus, Rory’s parents are still together. Not sure if I get this one …

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5. If only one partner in your marriage is a smoker, you’re 75 percent to 91 percent more likely to divorce than smokers who are married to fellow smokers. Says the story, “Dissimilarities between spouses increase divorce risks.” Happily, Rory and I are both nonsmokers.

6. If you have a daughter, you’re nearly 5 percent more likely to divorce than if you have a son. Why? “Fathers get more invested in family life when they have boys.”

7. If you’re an evangelical Christian adult who has been married, there’s a 26 percent likelihood that you’ve been divorced—compared to a 28 percent chance for Catholics and a 38 percent chance for non-Christians. Those stats are coming from The Barna Group, a research company that was founded to serve Christian ministries, so lets take ’em with a grain of salt, shall we?

8. If you live in Wayne County, Indiana, and are over 15 years old, there’s a 19.2 percent chance that you’ve been divorced. This county has the nation’s highest percentage of divorced residents. A close second: Monroe County, Florida, at 18 percent.

10. If you’re a woman two or more years older than your husband, your marriage is 53 percent more likely to end in divorce than if he was one year younger to three years older. Rory’s a year older than I am. Phew!

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11. If you’re of “below average” intelligence, you’re 50 percent more likely to be divorced than those of “above average” intelligence. “Those with IQs of 100 face a 28 percent probability of divorce in the first five years of marriage, compared to just a 9 percent probability for those with IQs of 130.”

12. If you’ve been diagnosed with cervical cancer, your likelihood of getting divorced is 40 percent higher than standard rates; it’s 20 percent higher if you’ve been diagnosed with testicular cancer. “These two cancers affect sexual activity and afflict mainly young people.”

13. If you have twins or triplets, your marriage is 17 percent more likely to end in divorce than if your children are not multiple births. Having a bunch of babies at once is pricey, which brings us back to No. 3.

14. If you’re a female serial cohabiter—a woman who has lived with more than one partner before your first marriage—then you’re 40 percent more likely to get divorced than women who have never done so. Rory is the first guy I lived with, and I’m his first live-in girl.

15. If you’re in a male same-sex marriage, it’s 50 percent more likely to end in divorce than a heterosexual marriage. If you’re in a female same-sex marriage, this figure soars to 167 percent. Stay strong, Ellen and Portia!

Read the full story here.

What do you guys make of these stats? Are there some that have you a little freaked out? (No. 4 is the most worrisome for me.) Does anyone live in Wayne County, Indiana? And where can I get my hands on an IQ test?!